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摘要：利用MODIS卫星遥感数据反演得到2002—2017年辽东湾海冰面积资料，并分析了海冰面积的时空分布特征及年际变化特征。辽东湾初冰日出现在12月上中旬，终冰日出现在3月上中旬，个别年份出现在2月下旬。最大海冰日普遍出现在1月下旬或2月上旬，最大日海冰面积偏大的年份，冰期也相对偏长。进一步分析了辽东湾日海冰面积与营口气象站气温和气温积温（≤-4℃）的相关性，结果显示辽东湾海冰面积与二者均存在显著负相关关系。在此基础上利用回归分析方法建立了辽东湾海冰面积发展期和消融期的预报方程，并在2019/2020年度冬季进行检验。 关键词：辽东湾海冰面积；冰期；气温；积温；卫星遥感；MODIS
8 D2 I+ J% L7 f7 |9 S8 S8 b: e- x* |Abstract：The sea ice area data in Liaodong Bay from 2002 to 2017 is obtained by using MODIS satellite data, and the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution and annual variation of the sea ice area are analyzed in this paper. During these 16 years, the initial ice day in Liaodong Bay generally occurred in early or midDecember. The final ice day generally occurred in early or mid-March, except for several years in late February. The largest daily ice area occurred in late January or early February. The years with a larger ice area also had a relatively longer ice duration. Moreover, the ice area in Liaodong Bay shows a negative correlation with the air temperature and the accumulated temperature (≤ - 4℃). The regression analysis method is used to establish a prediction equation of the sea ice area in Liaodong Bay during the increasing and the thawing period, and is validated for the winter of 2019/2020. Key words：sea ice area in Liaodong Bay; ice duration; air temperature; accumulated temperature; satellite remote sensing; MODIS 7 B( h$ n1 R+ ^6 Y# t" v% n
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