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2 z" M7 k' a6 R- U 两次西风槽影响下北上台风导致的强降水对比分析
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http://www.hyyb.org.cn/Magazine/Show.aspx?ID=3499
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读书小笔记
4 O/ ]0 |# t& M0 w 作者：陈宏 卢焕珍 孙密娜 韩婷婷
N# c, D0 l- y5 L: j* p 单位：天津市气象台, 天津 300074
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分类号：P444
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出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第四期（83-96）
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摘要：利用台风最佳路径数据、逐时自动站资料、美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）1°×1°再分析资料、FY-4A卫星的云顶亮温和常规观测资料，对比分析了2106号台风“烟花”和1810号台风“安比”在北上过程中受到西风带高空槽影响导致天津地区强降水落区产生差异的原因。结果表明：两次台风在北上过程中，均受到高空槽和冷空气的影响，但是由于台风结构不同，西风槽和北上台风结合后引发的暴雨位置和强度有所区别。台风“安比”维持正压结构，降水持续时间短、降水强度大，大暴雨主要集中在天津西部；而台风“烟花”存在斜压性，降水持续时间长、效率低，大暴雨主要位于天津东部。在台风“安比”期间，副热带高压东撤，槽后冷空气渗透与偏东南暖湿低空急流交汇共同导致大气层结向不稳定状态发展，中尺度云团发展，正涡度强度明显增大，高层高位涡气流到达对流层低层，位涡下传引起低层位涡增大，强降水与对流层低层螺旋度中心、锋区以及偏东水汽输送关系密切；而台风“烟花”与西风槽合并后中尺度云团不明显，暴雨区西侧和北侧的θse密集带发生倾斜，斜压性增强，强降水站点主要位于锋生函数和假相当位温的梯度区，偏南水汽输送为持续降水提供水汽来源，降水的雨强较小，以稳定性降水为主。
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关键词：台风 西风槽 位涡 水汽输送
3 K! ]( S$ C' h; J4 d& n6 E! t, I Abstract：Based on typhoon best track data, hourly automatic weather station data, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) 1°×1° reanalysis data, cloud top brightness temperature data from FY-4A satellite and conventional observation data, a comparative analysis of heavy precipitation in Tianjin during Typhoon “In-Fa” (2106) and Typhoon “Ampil” (1810) is conducted in this study, specifically both these two northward-moving typhoons were affected by high-altitude trough in the westerly belt. The results show that the two typhoons were both affected by high-altitude troughs and cold air during their northward movement. However, due to the different typhoon structure, location and intensity of the rainstorm are different after the two typhoons encounter the westerly trough. Typhoon "Ampil" maintained a barotropic structure, thus the associated precipitation had a short duration and high intensity, and the heavy rainstorm mainly located in the western Tianjin. However, Typhoon "In-Fa" had a baroclinic property, and the associated precipitation had a long duration and low intensity, and the heavy rainstorm mainly located in the eastern Tianjin. During the northward movement of Typhoon "Ampil", the subtropical high moved eastward, which was conducive to convergence of the cold air behind the trough and the warm-humid low-level jet from the southeast, leading to the development of atmospheric stratification instability and mesoscale cloud clusters. The high-level high potential vortex air flow reached the lower troposphere, and the downward propagation of the potential vortex caused the increases of the low-level potential vortex. Heavy rainfall is closely related to the helicity center, frontal zone and easterly water vapor transport in the lower troposphere. Typhoon "In-Fa" merged with the westerly trough and evolved into a high-altitude trough, but the mesoscale cloud clusters were not obvious, and the dense belts of θse on the west and north sides of the heavy rain area inclined. Heavy rainfall mainly located in the gradient area of frontogenesis function and pseudo-equivalent potential temperature. The southerly water vapor transport provided the source for continuous precipitation. The associated precipitation was characterized by low intensity and high stability.
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Key words：typhoon; westerly trough; potential vortex; water vapor transport
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% R* Q1 _( Q( R8 | 未来两天海洋环境预报
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预计明天，
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渤海、黄海有0.6到1.2米的轻浪；
% K/ I. h! y; G- V" u8 D' P6 { 东海北部有1.7到2.2米的中浪区；
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东海南部、钓鱼岛附近海域、台湾以东洋面有2.2到2.9米的中浪到大浪区；
. k* S& L7 P/ ` 台湾海峡有3到3.5米的大浪区；
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巴士海峡有2.4到3米的中浪到大浪区；
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南海北部有2.9到3.2米的大浪区；
+ s p8 o p3 P1 k 南海中部有1.8到2.6米的中浪到大浪区；
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南海南部有0.8到1.2米的轻浪；
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北部湾有1.6到2.2米的中浪区。
( _; Y) N4 {- z" J* ]- ~( \. @0 U( N 预计后天，
. J; b2 S3 q4 E( R 东海南部、钓鱼岛附近海域、台湾以东洋面的大浪区维持，浪高2.2到2.7米；
+ R6 x7 v N+ K/ t( p9 w 台湾海峡、巴士海峡的大浪区维持，浪高2.6到3.2米；
0 U5 `( ?) q, R" j! A+ s 南海北部的大浪区维持，浪高2.9到3.3米；
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南海中部的大浪区维持，浪高2.2到2.7米。
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. p1 n+ ?# @+ F/ m Z. l4 w i 10月10~14日西北太平洋海浪数值预报
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美丽海岛海域海况
9 C2 G: _) h4 [$ H 预计明天，
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平潭岛、湄洲岛、东山岛、钓鱼岛、南澳岛、分界洲岛、永兴岛附近海域有2.1~2.4米的中浪，以上海岛都不适宜乘船出行和海岛游玩；
. A! X a0 s6 Q# L! D) S4 ~ 南麂岛、万山群岛、川山群岛、蜈支洲岛附近海域有1.8~1.9米的中浪，嵊泗列岛、东极岛、普陀山、大陈岛、洞头岛、嵛山岛、海陵岛、南三岛、东海岛、黄岩岛附近海域有1.4~1.7米的中浪，这些海岛较适宜乘船出行和海岛游玩；
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我国其他美丽海岛附近海域都是轻浪，海况不错，非常适宜乘船出行和海岛游玩。
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美丽海岛是指以下的35个海岛：
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觉华岛、长山群岛、菩提岛、长岛、刘公岛、灵山岛、秦山岛、连岛、崇明岛、嵊泗列岛、岱山岛、东极岛、普陀山、大陈岛、玉环岛、洞头岛、南麂岛、嵛山岛、三都岛、平潭岛、湄洲岛、东山岛、钓鱼岛、南澳岛、万山群岛、川山群岛、海陵岛、南三岛、东海岛、涠洲岛、分界洲岛、蜈支洲岛、永兴岛、黄岩岛、永暑礁。
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